TRG by Invitation: Tim Yeo MP on Biofuels

Tim Yeo MP, Chairman of the cross-party Environmental Audit Committee and former Shadow Minister of Agriculture, writes about limitation of current policies on biofuels.

Earlier this year the Environmental Audit Committee looked at biofuels, to try to untangle conflicting reports about their usefulness in lowering greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles, and to investigate concerns that their production might cause environmental damage.

We found that although certain biofuels, such as bioethanol, can indeed help to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles, many could have serious environmental impacts and might even lead to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions overall.

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Tory Poll Leads - TRG Blog Exclusive!

Just thought I would add a little tempter to readers to nip out early tomorrow morning. I have just been told that a News of the World poll due out tomorrow will give the Tories a 9% poll over Labour and another in the Sunday Times, conducted post Budget, will show Labour a whopping 16% behind!

Certainly a nice end to Spring Forum this year!

Fishing for Quotas

This morning, the BBC website and the Today Programme have highlighted the problem of fishermen who have to dump fish, caught in mixed fishing grounds, that is not in their quota. This damages fish stocks but does not help fishermen or consumers.

Those offering their opinions on what has to be done have already called for further reductions in the fishing fleets, which may devastate some local communities, and for the UK to introduce marine reserves, which might help stocks but would not prevent dumping of what is caught outside of those zones.

It may seem a bit of a different topic for the TRG, but I would like to start a conversation with a new suggestion. That would be to move the quotas from the level of the fishing boats to the fish markets themselves. All markets work more effectively when there is increased liquidity. In this case, if any fisherman can bring back any fish to a local market, there would be less thrown over board. However, once a local market had reached their quota, they would not pay the fishermen. This would not be a frequent occurrence as the fishermen already check prices from off shore and could check which market was full - or nearly full - before they left port and while at sea.

Anyone see anything wrong with that idea?

So, Did He Deliver?

As I outlined on Wednesday morning, in my view, David Cameron had one big task to perform in his close of conference speech. Did he deliver? By and large, yes, I think he did.

The press over the last two days seems to agree and the polls out today, particularly the Guardian which puts the Tories and Labour neck-and-neck, back this up.

What did he get right? Most things. The key element for me, along with the warm words about education, the NHS and defence, was the tone and the philosophy that ran through the speech. What I was hoping to see, and what I did see, was a philosophy coming through that could be summed up on the doorstep with some juicy phrases. Some of the ones I noted down during the speech included:

“We are the Party of One Nation” - This was obviously a particularly TRG-friendly phrase!

“The revolution of freedom from control” - Which works as a key principle that many will understand and relate to.

“Stop wasting money on pointless gimmicks” - Another with broad control that, coupled with the right examples, will be a winner.

“Why don’t you [Brown] go ahead and call that election and let the people decide!” - This has been one of the most consistent recent themes and has been repeated by every member of the party interviewed in the last few days. Brown now has a no-win choice on the election and the Tories seem to be very much on the up as a result.

“Britain will win” - Nice and simple closer, although not exactly Churchillian, it worked well for the cheers in the hall but will perhaps travel less well.

One phrase I did no hear from DC, but which is already being used widely, is “Safer, greener Britain”. This did not sit easily with me the first time that I heard it as I thought the terms made an odd couple. However, it is being repeated and seems to resonate, so there you go. The connecting them is one of the Conservative Party protecting the country from the biggest threats and that was a good part of DC’s speech, too.

Was there anything wrong with it? The “no-script” approach might have jarred with some, but a larger number probably appreciated it. There were some sections that seemed a bit long, but even then there are audiences for some policies that might have felt left out had they been shorter. Really, though, these things are quibbles and the real answer to the question is no, nothing much.

So, the Tories now have a spring in their step and a bounce in their polls. Whether either lasts remains to be seen, but I think this is an overall vote of support in the Cameron leadership.

From a TRG perspective, it is all to be welcomed, and our members are likely to be able to campaign with enthusiasm and confidence should Brown not lose his nerve over calling an election.

Levy on the Non-Domiciled

One of the most intriguing policies to come out this week was the £25,000 proposed levy on non-domiciled residents of the UK. There seemed to be a couple of different versions of how this might work reported in the press.

Is anyone out there capable of giving a more informed opinion of how it might work or how it may effect them?

What Does Cameron Have to Do, Today?

David Cameron will give his main address to the party conference just after 2 o’clock, this afternoon. What should he be aiming for? For me it is clear that there is one remaining task.

It has been a clear fact that the conference audience has been completely united this week. The ordinary party members, perhaps because they are focussed on a possible general election within a month, have all had two main questions they wanted answered this week.

The first requirement was for a clutch of policies that can be used by activists on the doorstep. This has been delivered. We can talk about new ideas for pensions, inheritance tax, charges on non-domicled residents and others. Excellent.

The second need is the one that needs to be met by Cameron, today. That need is for a fresh articulation of what the Conservative Party stands for. It means we need a form of words that can be repeated by activists across the country. It requires a series of ideas that can be easily communicated that explain the values that were used to choose those policies that have been adopted from among all the ideas generated by the review groups.

This week the new policies and the coherence among ordinary members has given the party a strong platform on which to build and much of it will be of comfort to One Nation Conservatives. I am confident that Cameron will deliver the rest, today, when the stakes are high.

Midnight Rumours

In the wee hours of this morning, the rumours running through the bar included a two-part theory on the events of today. The first part was that Gordon Brown would make surprise visit to Iraq to announce a cut in troop numbers. This happened this morning and has been welcomed by David Cameron.

The second part was that on his way back from Iraq, Brown might stop at Balmoral, where the Queen currently is, in order to ask for a disolution of Parliament. This rumour was taken seriously enough for some of the main conference speaker due on today to nip off to their rooms with their staff and work on second versions of their speeches to include rallying cries for an election.

We should know in the next few hours if the rumour mill can make it two out of two.

Conservatives and London 2012

I am sitting in a briefing from the Olympics organising groups with Lord Coe and Jonathon Edwards.

I have supprted the Olympics and bidding process for years. At one previous conference in Bournemouth some years ago a very angry Conservative member of the Greater London Assembly complained about the increase in their council tax as a result of the Olympics. At the time this was expected to be a total of £20 per year or so. The whingeing individual embodied the worst traits of negativity in the party. I offered to pay it their increase if that would lead to silence and it worked. My support was on the grounds that I was excited and proud to see the greatest sporting event in the world come to the greatest.

Fortunately, that negative strain of thought is not in evidence, today. There was a huge amount of support for the olympics and the concerns and questions are all about how things are being managed, and rightly so.

Hugh Robertson MP is also on the panel.He has done an excellent job of making sense of the numbers in the Olympics budget and making clear that the organisers have not gone over their original predictions. All of the reported ‘increases’ are not actually related to the games costs but are due to Gordon Brown’s attempts to blame Lord Coe for the money Brown wants to spend on regeneration.

TRG@Conference 2007

As the Conservative Party Conference opens in Blackpool, today, I find myself flicking through the official handbook. It has the complete listing of main hall and fringe events. One name that keeps coming up is that of David Willets MP. He seems to have the most hectic schedule of any speaker at the fringe, this year. If you think anyone else is doing more, then let us know.

The TRG’s own programme for conference looks pretty impressive and I should stress that I don’t have much to do with organising these things, that is mainly down to Tim Crockford, our events committee chair, and Clare Whelan, our National Director, so thanks (in advance!) to both of them.

We are hosting “4 Days, 4 Events”, with speakers including Lord Hurt, Oliver Letwin, Sir Malcolm Rifkind, Damian Green, David Mudell, Sayeeda Warsi, Nick Bourne, Dominic Grieve and others. It should all be informative and, hopefully, a lot of fun.  As things develop, we will try and get some things posted on this blog to offer the TRG’s perspective on the conference as it unfolds!

TRG By Invitation: Steve Norris on the London Mayor Campaign

Steve Norris, TRG Patron and former Conservative Candidate for Mayor of London writes for the TRG about what he thinks the Conservative Mayoral Candidate in 2008 should campaign on.

Even a stopped clock’s right twice a day so perhaps it is inevitable that even this government occasionally gets something right. That was the case when the incoming administration decided there ought to be an elected body responsible for strategic issues in London, and that the best mechanism to deliver those strategies was an elected Mayor. Before too many Conservative hackles rise, let me explain.

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Have-a-go Hereos

Jack Straw’s comments about the need for the law to be made clearer so that those willing to do so feel safe to intervene in the face of crime are welcome. This is not least the case because his government has successfully oppossed several Tory attempts to do the same thing over the last ten years.

Straw wants to protect those people who intervene to prevent crime or to catch those who have carried it out. Good. Some might even say, about time. Crime, particular at the low levels of public disorder, are vastly worse than they need to be because too often those involved are not challenged by the people around them. Anything that can be done to address that should be perceived as a good thing.

It also reminded me of this great little piece by the BBC’s Jeremy Vine, who witnessed a couple of doses of anti-social behaviour on the tube and why is ashamed to not have acted as he would have hoped he would.

Boris 4 Mayor?

Some political predictions are harder than others. It does not seem that a prediction that Boris Johnson will be announced today as the Conservative candidate for London Mayor will rank as a great act of political insight and it is the common view.
The question has become: will Boris be any good as a candidate?

On the one hand, Boris is a remarkably popular figure among sections of the electorate that do not normally get as engaged in elections as others. So, there is a chance that new voters will become pulled into the vote and that more bodies will be available for campaigning activities. Sadly, the students are unlikely to be able to bolster his vote as they will be engaged in exams or registered at home come election day.

On the other hand, there is a fear that Boris will issue another gaffe, of the type he has made over cities including Liverpool and Portsmouth.

This is not the problem that some perceice, either. The strangest outcome of these Boris comments, though, seems to be that no one really holds it against him when he says these things. It is simply a case of what makes Boris, Boris.

There is a further question. That relates to Boris’ role as an MP for an Oxfordshire constituency. Boris has already said he would not remain as an MP if he becames Mayor, as he repeated on the Today Programme, this morning. But what if he becomes the candidate and a general election is called early? How will he manage two elections that do not geographically overlap?

The first question will be answered today.

The others may take a little longer, but I suspect that Tory party members will not be disappointed.

Update - 27 September 2007

So, as we thought, the result was not a surprise. Boris has won and good luck to him! The scale of his win, though, is unprecedented. Boris took 75% of all votes cast, with a majority of some 14,000 over the next placed candidate. That is impressive.

BBC report is here.

Farming and the City

I have written before about the split between town and country, which I view as one of the biggest divides in Britain today. One lady, Jane O’Neill, feels the same way and has been on Radio 4 this morning.

Jane has a small holding in Sussex, where some of my own family used to farm. She told a story about a teacher from the South-West of England who refused to to take children on a farm trip because she thought farming was cruel. Why? She thought that cows had to be killed to remove their milk!

The gap between town and country is getting even bigger. Jane’s response has been to do something about it and she is driving geese through London, as it used to be done, tomorrow to highlight the problem. All of this forms part of “The Farming to Food Show”, which sounds like a pretty great way to bring some understanding of farming and where food comes from (that is, where it comes from before it gets to the supermarket!).

The Farming to Food show is at Potters Field, right by City Hall, London on 27, 28 & 29 September 2007 and is open from 10 a.m.

Something to do before conference! If anyone goes along, leave a comment here with your thoughts.

Magna Carta - The Heart of the British Constitution

The Financial Times is carrying a story today about the upcoming sale of one of the earliest issues of Magna Carta.

Magna Carta is very dear to my heart, which may or may not be connected to the fact that I read history at university.

However, in the frequent debate about whether Britain needs a written constitution, it is important to remember that Magna Carta is an early forebear of just such a document. For example, it recognises and enshrines limits on the power of the state and offers the basis for an impartial legal system.

No freeman shall be taken, imprisoned, or in any other way destroyed, except by the lawful judgement of his peers.

Over the years, most of the copies that were originally sent out to each county, have been lost or damaged beyond repair. The British Library holds four copies, of which only one is in a good state. The one on sale is one of only two copies currently outside the UK and the last in private hands and has been on display at the National Archives in Washington since arriving in the US in 1984, alongside the US Constitution and the Declaration of Independence

Sotheby’s are estimating that it will reach around $30m, which I believe is a bargain for such an important document for both British history and the cause of human rights. It might be worth a quick whip round among some of the Conservative Party’s biggest donors, too, as we should be looking to preserve such a rare document.

After all, Tony Blair had a pretty good go at trying to tear-up all the other copies…

The Vision Thing

I am sitting in a conference hall in a Warsaw hotel. 300 other centre-right activists, politicians and associated hacks are here under the umbrella of the European Ideas Network, a rather impressive pan-European grouping that works to stimulate political thoughts among like-minded people associated with parties that are members of the EPP.

Among the other attendees are several Conservative MEP’s as well as some MP’s, including a couple of shadow ministers and  a shadow cabinet member or two.

What is really striking is the level of debate. Some of what is being discussed is really mind expanding stuff and I am very much at the junior end of the attendees. The discussions have a theme, “The World in 2025″ and there are some very impressive speakers coming up. My first impression though is overwhelmingly positive and this is for one main reason: there are big ideas here, there is vision and the contrast with the managerial nature of politics at Westminster at the moment is very stark. Some of what is being said is inspirational and for those of us who are followers of politics that is exciting.

So, over the next day or so I will do my best to blog some of my thoughts as they happen and offer my flavour of what is happening here.

Science and Technology Report

It would be remiss of me to miss out the Tory’s latest policy report. This is because I was on the panel that helped to write it.

That probably means I should not really comment on it too much, except to say it is an extremely useful document that can be found on the Conservative Party’s own site.

The BBC has reported on it, too.

Finding Direction Without a Map

As the last of the Tory’s major policy review groups to report, the finding of the Quality of Life team are particularly welcome. Firstly, their weighty tome has added a large number of exciting new policy options to the party for its consideration. Some were to be expected, such as calls to curb airport expansion. Others were less so.

However, throughout the long roll-call of ideas, there was a set of clear themes. In the first instance, the idea that the environment is rightfully at the top of the political agenda and will be seen by future generations as the defining moment of our political generation. Get this wrong, and those in power will be infamous. Get them right and they will be rightfully famous.

Secondly, their is a consistency of approach in their solutions. Top among these is the basis of using both carrot and stick to solve major issues. The stick in this case is invariably tax. While the group has gone to great lengths to make clear that they are advocating no change in the total tax burden, they do see the need for a redistribution of it to ensure that the true cost of our actions is reflected in the price. This is almost the definition of the case for government intervention in a market-based system and no practical capitalist will disagree with principle.

Where things are looking less firm, in the ideas of the media at least, is in how the results of these labours are to be squared with those of the others that have already reported, as this editorial from the Financial Times discusses.

But I am not sure that there is really the problem that some commentators have supposed. Not long ago, the Tory Party was under attack for not having enough policies. Now they think we have too many. There really is no pleasing some people!

The ability to really choose between policy options is really an opportunity. After all, decisions will have to be made and no one will be able to say there were no options. So whatever the Cameron administration picks out, it will have to stand by. The values that those decisions embody will become self-evident and the charge that there is no moral map to guide the party will clearly be null and void. Come election time, whenever that may be, there will be a real choice for voters and the basis of the Conservative choice will be clear.

Good luck to David, George and Oliver in making their decisions. We all have a lot riding on them.

A New National Service?

I am at home over the weekend and my father, who was in one of the last intakes of National Service, has just expressed his support for what he thought was David Cameron’s idea of re-introducing it, as reported by the BBC.
Now I am not really sure that the idea of a service that is voluntary and one that is about community service rather than preparing men for war is really something that should be classified as National Service, even if it is a national service. Perhaps the most telling difference, though, is that this service is expected to last for six weeks rather than for two years or more. Is this really enough time to allow those taking part to bond and to learn the lessons of discipline, team work and camradre that my father so hopes it will? I suspect not.

However, it does illustrate, once again, the way that many people such as my father see the problems of society. He is not someone that has been the victim of a major crime, nor is he generally fearful. But he does believe that there is a general slackening of law and order based on a relaxation of fairly basic values.

I am not sure that the proposals outlined for this scheme so far, really will achieve what they have set out to do. However, the TRG values of social justice do lead me to praise the attempt to find a big solution to a big problem. This is a problem, after all, for everyone in society and not just those targeted by the scheme. With such high stakes, we should be prepared to be bold with these ideas, going further if necessary, and welcome the options of new choices for young people that have been failed for far too long.

Early Election Speculation

The last week has seen Brown appoint an election “co-ordinator”, Jon Mendelsohn, but does this mean an election is imminent?

Yesterday’s Economist has a short piece considering the same question. Back in December 2006, I blogged on the same question but has anything changed? In December, there appeared to be five drivers of an early election. How do they look now?

1. Brown needs a “victory”. This has changed, a little. Firstly, the two by election victories Brown received have settled nerves. Secondly, it has become clear that the 69-majority Labour holds will be enough to govern effectively as there is insufficient demand for trouble among the ranks.
2. Brown wants to govern for as long as possible. No change here. The real question is whether Brown sees any limitation on what he can do with No 10 as long as he is Blair’s heir rather than an elected PM.
3. There is a honeymoon period for any new leader. Boy, has this proved to be right. Brown must be pleased as punch about the most recent polls and he should be. The question now is: will it last?
4. Brown is right to also think that things are not going to get much better if he waits around. The Tories are beginning to address their longest-running problem under DC by announcing some great new policy ideas. This week will see some more. Internal discipline amongst the Conservatives will hearten Brown, but he knows there is a chance this will be a high-water mark.
5. An early election would also mean a short campaign and Labour does not have the resources for a long one. Labour still has over£25m of debt. Time is not likely to sort that out drastically, but an election might. Donors will still turn out when asked, a short campaign costs less and, as the Economist pointed out, the end of the cash for peerages affair means they are unlikely to be put off by fears of negative consequences.

The Balance

That leaves us with four reasons that are as strong as they were before, or stronger, and one that is weaker than in December. As of today,  PaddyPower.com, the online bookmaker, is offering 6-1 on a 2007 election. It is still not a 50-50 bet, the chances are an election will not happen, but the odds are shorter than that! And for one reason in particular, the election co-ordinator appointment shows that Brown is thinking about it at least. Brown has had time to consider this option and that is more important in determining his behaviour than his aversion to risk. Besides, the indicators are shifting and the time is approaching where there may be more risk in not holding an election than in going to the polls.

So What?

I also speculated that the most likely dates were in May or October this year, if it were to happen at all. I don’t think that an election is more likely now than I did then, but I am strongly of the belief that the Conservative Party should be prepared - everywhere. The policies are coming, and that is to be welecomed. David Cameron has said the party machine is ready, and that may be true in the bluer parts of the country. But there are also some constituencies lower down the list of likely winners that are still not being allowed to pick their candidates and their are still too many badly organised local associations that need to be pushed to reform themselves or face something more Draconian.

Caroline Spelman, the new Party Chairman, has not been in place long enough to have addressed these issues, but she needs to have a plan and to be seen to be implementing it - soon.

The Trouble with Transport

Transport is not a sexy issue for most politicians. After all, new infrastructure projects cost a great deal of money, local people and environmentalists are often upset during construction and after they are complete an ungrateful public will fill them to bursting point and then complain there is not enough capacity. And then the cycle starts again.

The problem for them is that transport also frequently comes in the top set of issues about which the public is most concerned so politicians cannot be seen to do nothing.

This is the sort of dilemma that leads to cynicism. The scheme for London’s trains known as Crossrail is now entering another stage of being manipulated for such non-constructive ends.

It is over a decade since Crossrail was first mooted. The project could have been completed by now. Sadly, instead of getting on with it, the government has consistently kicked it into the long grass, having spent nearly as much as the original projected budget on consultants and consultations to prolong the period before needing to make a decision.

As Transport Secretary, Alistair Darling had once lent his support to Crossrail. Now it looks like he is back-tracking once again, as the FT has reported, but the need remains and politicians must learn that the worst option is to not act at all. The rising price of land in London over the last ten years means that the property costs for Crossrail are already higher than the original budget and Londoners and others in the South East have still had no benefit from the scheme. With transport, inaction costs money. As the FT says today,

“Unhappy commuters aside, the state of British infrastructure is a real constraint on economic growth. France cites its sleek infrastructure – ranging from high-speed trains to cheap nuclear power – as one of the top attractions for foreign investors. By contrast, “Heathrow hassle” is proving a compelling reason for international executives to avoid London, and the CBI employers’ body cites infrastructure problems among its top concerns.”

There are not magic solutions to these transport problems. Their large scale means they are costly and some degree of public support remains a requirement of getting them built, particularly given the ongoing issues of the UK’s planning system which makes such projects massively more expensive here than elsewhere. Nor is this just a London issue. Wherever you go in the UK there are businesses and private individuals whose lives are prosperity are constrained by poor transport links of all kinds: road, rail, air and sea.

The UK desperately needs a coherent transport action plan to move us beyond an infrastructure that was laid out in Victorian times. This is a challenge that all major political parties should step forward bravely to meet. The public will thank them for it.