A Labour seat has been held by a Labour candidate with an increased majority at a time when the fiscal conservatism of the existing Conservative/Lib Dem coalition government is starting to prove unpopular. So far, so relatively predictable. The furore surrounding the discredited former Labour MP for the seat, Phil Woolas, originally gave rise to the hope amongst the narrowly defeated Liberal Democrats that they might be able to take the seat. That they didn’t is not the biggest blow the party could have received, especially given that they have managed to sustain their vote (adding a small 0.3% on a lower turnout) at a time when the Lib Dems as a party, and Nick Clegg as leader in particular, have been given a hammering over student fees. So they can breathe reasonably freely today.
The Conservatives, on the other hand, may find the result rather less encouraging. Reports are that they ran a lacklustre campaign, despite keeping their strong local candidate, in order to give the Lib Dems a clearer run. Their vote, in consequence, pretty well collapsed. Whatever the original strategic reasons for such a campaign, it is clear that it was an error. I am a supporter of the Coalition government, as are many TRG-ers. I want them to succeed and I admire the effective way in which co-operation between Conservatives and Liberal Democrats goes on in government. But I also want people to be able to vote for Conservative candidates, who campaign with full blooded distinction as such. As it happens, a better campaign in Oldham may not in fact have damaged the Lib Dem chances as much as Cameron and co obviously thought. Whatever the state of play in Westminster, the Tory and Lib Dem voters are not so easily transferable it would seem. I don’t always agree with the analysis on Conservative Home, but Jonathan Isaby’s conclusions from Oldham posted this morning do bear reading, and seem today to be pretty much on the nail. We can and must keep coalition politics going, but it doesn’t need to be at the expense of annoying a large swathe of the Conservative Party.
As for the leaders – for Nick Clegg, it may be a bit of a relief that attention could turn for a while to the Tories’ woes. After all, he has been a useful lightning conductor for them for a little longer than he might have liked. For David Cameron, it’s another in his endless round of internecine warfare with his traditionalist opponents. And for Ed Milliband, the result has bought him some time off from the quiet sniping about his leadership that was already beginning.
