Boris 4 Mayor?
Some political predictions are harder than others. It does not seem that a prediction that Boris Johnson will be announced today as the Conservative candidate for London Mayor will rank as a great act of political insight and it is the common view.
The question has become: will Boris be any good as a candidate?
On the one hand, Boris is a remarkably popular figure among sections of the electorate that do not normally get as engaged in elections as others. So, there is a chance that new voters will become pulled into the vote and that more bodies will be available for campaigning activities. Sadly, the students are unlikely to be able to bolster his vote as they will be engaged in exams or registered at home come election day.
On the other hand, there is a fear that Boris will issue another gaffe, of the type he has made over cities including Liverpool and Portsmouth.
This is not the problem that some perceice, either. The strangest outcome of these Boris comments, though, seems to be that no one really holds it against him when he says these things. It is simply a case of what makes Boris, Boris.
There is a further question. That relates to Boris’ role as an MP for an Oxfordshire constituency. Boris has already said he would not remain as an MP if he becames Mayor, as he repeated on the Today Programme, this morning. But what if he becomes the candidate and a general election is called early? How will he manage two elections that do not geographically overlap?
The first question will be answered today.
The others may take a little longer, but I suspect that Tory party members will not be disappointed.
Update - 27 September 2007
So, as we thought, the result was not a surprise. Boris has won and good luck to him! The scale of his win, though, is unprecedented. Boris took 75% of all votes cast, with a majority of some 14,000 over the next placed candidate. That is impressive.
BBC report is here.
I heard Boris speaking on Radio 4 this morning, and I’m afraid he was rather disappointing. Put on the spot with a question that could have been anticipated - something along the lines of “the people of London deserve a serious candidate for Mayor… we all know you are a popular politician following TV appearances etc, but are you the man we want at the helm if there is a terrorist attack in London?” - his blustering was embarassing. I happen to be a fan of his, but after a couple of minutes listening to his incoherent waffling (he was in serious danger of making Bush sound like a dangerous intellectual…
I was beginning to wonder whether he was actually the person we’d want to be handling a crisis in the city…
He certainly needs to sharpen his game and ensure that he is better prepared for these types of questions. King Newt may be easy to poke fun at, but he’s been here twice before and - for all his myriad of ugly faults - is self-evidently astute enough to manage an election campaign.
It would be a huge error on Boris’ part to suppose that his profile and enigmatic charisma will guarantee him success at the polls. I suspect he may be in danger of thinking along those lines at the moment…
Comment by Tony O'Connor — 27 September, 2007 @ 7:27 pm
I am under the view that if anyone can beat Ken it will be Boris. The London Mayoral race is all about publicity and being a well known name!
Boris has got a very good team behind him already working on solid and well thought policy ideas for London. Yes Boris will certainly waffle through and insult some person or group, but combine his name with solid sensible policies and Ken is going to have a tough campaign!
At least we know it will be a proper race that hopefully will get people actually thinking about London’s issues and how important this position has become!
Comment by UCL Conservatives — 28 September, 2007 @ 11:08 am
Boris is the only candidate who can beat Ken. His Radio 4 interview wasn’t great but how many voters will be swayed by a Today interiew? Surely his media profile will be a plus for his campaign, spreading his name to non-Tory voters.
I don’t think he’s actually that gaffe-prone but tends to speak impulsively, which considering the last decade of high levels of media manipulation could work in his favour. It surely isn’t too unrealistic to think that some voters will actually like and agree with Boris?!
Get the Tory vote out aswell and we could have Boris, on his bike, promoting London 2012! Marvellous!
Comment by Michael David Rock — 28 September, 2007 @ 12:36 pm
Actually, Boris promoting the Olympics, quoting lines of ancient Greek, could be one of the highlights of 2012… :0)
Comment by Timothy Barnes — 28 September, 2007 @ 12:40 pm
Boris is a great character and a much better politician than he is given credit for but he will need to show that he has a real vision for London. Whilst I abhor some of Ken’s policies (his hatred for the car, the nonsense with Chavez), you can’t deny that he loves London and it is easy to see his electoral appeal. Also, he was very good at the unveiling of the Madela statue. Boris has a lot of work to do.
Comment by Victoria Roberts — 28 September, 2007 @ 5:48 pm