When Will We Hear the Starting Gun?

This evening’s edition of the London evening standard is being promoted with bill board’s covered with words to the effect that Brown has already fired the starting gun for an election.

Of course, this is not quite the case, but there does appear to be a shift towards an election given the Prime Minister’s speech at the Labour Party conference this afternoon.

Discussing this issue with people over the weekend, the common view seemed to be that if there is an election in 2007 it would be at the end of October, before the clocks go back on the 28th. I am going to to put my neck on the line and suggest that IF there is an election, it will be in November and probably on the 8th rather than the 1st.

Firstly, I don’t think that the clocks going back is the issue for Labour that is for the Tories, and even then it is small. Secondly, the perception amongst Labour advisors is that local Conservative Associations are not as ready for an election as the central party machine likes to make out. In particular, it is their observation that a great many seats remain without candidates and they do not want to declare an election before the Conservative party conference has concluded next week as that would give ample opportunity for Tory Association Chairmen and candidates to get together if needs be. They also want the Tories messages to be blunted by being unsure whether they are looking three years out or three weeks. Finally, Gordon ‘Prudence’ Brown will be wary of the Tories pulling off a minor miracle and getting a big enough bounce from conference messages to look more threatening.

All of this points to a decision on or around the 9 October when the first poll data after the Sunday papers review the Tory performanceI. Adding three weeks to that will take us into November.

Anyone think otherwise?