Between a Northern Rock and a Hard Place

And if you will excuse me a moment of I told you so, I told you so… :0)

On the “Blogger TV” show on 18DoughtyStreet.com on Monday, we debated the issue of the likely effects of Northern Rock on the opinion polls. I suggested that provided no-one lost any money (which they didn’t) then the Northern Rock affair would blow over and do precisely no harm to Labour’s polling. One of my fellow bloggers disagreed.

My assertion was based on a comparison with the run up to the 2001 election, in which thousands of burning animal carcasses were on TV each night in an attempt to clean up the foot and mouth infection. Blair was advised by almost everyone to not hold an election because of the damage that the affair was thought to be causing to his ratings. He judged, correctly, that once the images were gone so would the memory.   Something similar happened here and the moment there were no longer pensioners queuing around the block, all was revealed to be fine.

Last night’s Newsnight poll showed the results. Labour undamaged by the whole affair. An election in 2007 seems ever more likely.