Early Election Speculation

The last week has seen Brown appoint an election “co-ordinator”, Jon Mendelsohn, but does this mean an election is imminent?

Yesterday’s Economist has a short piece considering the same question. Back in December 2006, I blogged on the same question but has anything changed? In December, there appeared to be five drivers of an early election. How do they look now?

1. Brown needs a “victory”. This has changed, a little. Firstly, the two by election victories Brown received have settled nerves. Secondly, it has become clear that the 69-majority Labour holds will be enough to govern effectively as there is insufficient demand for trouble among the ranks.
2. Brown wants to govern for as long as possible. No change here. The real question is whether Brown sees any limitation on what he can do with No 10 as long as he is Blair’s heir rather than an elected PM.
3. There is a honeymoon period for any new leader. Boy, has this proved to be right. Brown must be pleased as punch about the most recent polls and he should be. The question now is: will it last?
4. Brown is right to also think that things are not going to get much better if he waits around. The Tories are beginning to address their longest-running problem under DC by announcing some great new policy ideas. This week will see some more. Internal discipline amongst the Conservatives will hearten Brown, but he knows there is a chance this will be a high-water mark.
5. An early election would also mean a short campaign and Labour does not have the resources for a long one. Labour still has over£25m of debt. Time is not likely to sort that out drastically, but an election might. Donors will still turn out when asked, a short campaign costs less and, as the Economist pointed out, the end of the cash for peerages affair means they are unlikely to be put off by fears of negative consequences.

The Balance

That leaves us with four reasons that are as strong as they were before, or stronger, and one that is weaker than in December. As of today,  PaddyPower.com, the online bookmaker, is offering 6-1 on a 2007 election. It is still not a 50-50 bet, the chances are an election will not happen, but the odds are shorter than that! And for one reason in particular, the election co-ordinator appointment shows that Brown is thinking about it at least. Brown has had time to consider this option and that is more important in determining his behaviour than his aversion to risk. Besides, the indicators are shifting and the time is approaching where there may be more risk in not holding an election than in going to the polls.

So What?

I also speculated that the most likely dates were in May or October this year, if it were to happen at all. I don’t think that an election is more likely now than I did then, but I am strongly of the belief that the Conservative Party should be prepared - everywhere. The policies are coming, and that is to be welecomed. David Cameron has said the party machine is ready, and that may be true in the bluer parts of the country. But there are also some constituencies lower down the list of likely winners that are still not being allowed to pick their candidates and their are still too many badly organised local associations that need to be pushed to reform themselves or face something more Draconian.

Caroline Spelman, the new Party Chairman, has not been in place long enough to have addressed these issues, but she needs to have a plan and to be seen to be implementing it - soon.