Blair’s Departure

So what will be the verdict on Tony Blair’s time as PM once it has ended in three or four hours from now?

There are many issues that most Tories will point to with some degree of negativity. These include the mess he has made of the UK’s constitution, the stripping of civil liberties, unfair tax rises, the pensions crisis, sale of peerages, creating a culture of spin and leaving the NHS in a mess of muddled management. For some only one word is needed: Iraq.

For me, his biggest sin was something he didn’t do. Actually, there were many things he didn’t do but the sin was not to have focussed on one really big initiative and see it through. Blair squandered one of the greatest inheritances of any politician in the modern era. Ken Clarke had left him with a strong economy that enabled him to count on public revenues to pay for major reforms. His huge parliamentary majority would have enabled him to push through unheralded changes. On top of that, Blair had a personal approval rating that would have allowed him to blast through opposition from any other quarter.

Instead, the economic harvest has been reaped to pay more for the same level of public services. The Commons majority was used to push through more new legislation and to put more crimes on the statute book than we have ever seen but all of it in little bits and pieces, nibbling the edges of our freedoms with little benefit to the British public but significant additional burdens. His personal support was used up on convincing to go to war in Iraq. Where was the vision of the Atlee government that created the modern welfare state? Where was the resolve of the Thatcher government that reformed public spending and brought about a new era of economic growth? Blair wasted his inheritance and he should not be forgiven for that.

That is not to say that I think Blair is evil, he is clearly not. I also think he was generally well intentioned. As a political operator and media puppeteer he was without equal and the Labour Party, as a machine, will miss him. His skill is no more aptly demonstrated than by the way he was able to transfer his close relationship with President Clinton to an even closer one with President Bush, in spite of their political differences. Sadly, this came at the price of a great deal of national pride (remember, “Yo, Blair!”?) and the loss of much credibility with other countries as this cartoon image well indicates.

There were also some successes. Sierra Leone was one where no other country could have stepped, as I have noted before. London has seen the first new hospitals built since the second World War, even if they were initiated under a PFI system originated by the Major government. In my view, though, the positives are still heavily outweighed by the negatives.

I am less convinced about his role in Northern Ireland, where I believe John Major deserves more credit, but that is not to say that he made matters worse. He enabled others to do the job, and there is skill in that, too.

As he looks into what happens next, maybe the role as Middle East envoy though, is one to which he is ideally suited. The US and Israel will have confidence in him and it is they that need to be moved in this debate. A more obviously impartial candidate may be unable to impart any real momentum into the process. His skills as a political operator could face no sterner test but I am glad he is no longer going to be a actor on the UK’s domestic political stage.

Gordon, it’s over to you to carry on the show.