Our recording of Macmillan and the press release we put our about it yesterday has caused a bit of a storm on the Conservative Home website with more than twice as many comments in response to their report as any other recent story.
Have a look here and comment yourself if you have a chance!
As part of our ongoing process of adding recordings from the TRG archives to our web presence, here is an address by Lord Heseltine to Student TRG from March 2006.
Please do feel free to comment.
Will there be an election?
My belief is, well, just maybe, yes. I have talked about this with friends and colleagues a great deal recently and I would say I now reckon there is a 50:50 chance of a general election in 2007 assuming Blair will go sometime next year and Brown will become leader. Some of the members of the media I have spoken to have also told me that they have made plans as to who will go where and how the coverage will work. We should all probably be as diligent.
The reasoning goes like this:
The question that remains is whether he has the guts to risk a job he has waited for so long. The “no” camp cites his refusal to push Blair when he was weak, but my instinct says he is cautious most of the time except when he has brooded on something and worked up to it. Here is a case in point. If he judges the tide is with him he will jump.
And if there is an election, when will it be?
The two most likely answers are May or October. May would allow the election to be combined with the local and Scottish rounds where Labour is expected to do badly. A general election would help lift that, goes the argument.
My vote is with the autumn though. This would allow Blair to make the most of his martyr complex and absorb the blame for bad May results and in so doing, saving his long-term reputation with the Labour Party (there being no other real chance for him to leave on a high note). Brown would then have the summer recess to dominate the media with his new policies while being unchallenged in the Commons. It would also give time to pull forces out of Iraq, something that could not be done my May, and the only real break with Blair-era policy that the general public will make voting decisions on. Brown could then call the election before the end of his honey moon period and take the stage at a rescheduled Labour Party conference as the victor of an impressive fourth successive term. Or at least, that would be Brown’s version of the script.
And if there is an election, will Brown win?
The Guardian suggests today that the Tories are on 40% to Labour’s 32%. Gordon Brown could be one of the shortest serving Prime Ministers in history.
Meanwhile, I am off to Ladbrokes to see the latest odds.
The BBC is reporting that the Party’s National and International Security Policy Group will propose a “UK National Security Council” to oversee major decisions on foreign policy, including those leading to declarations of war.
Lord Hurd made a similar proposal at the TRG’s annual International Lecture in September. The press release, including a copy of the speech, can be found here.
A while ago I read a book that many of you might have heard of called “Freakanomics”; indeed, I reviewed it for Reformer, the TRG’s bi-annual journal (click here if you are interested).
The joy of the book is that it explained the tricky subject of economics in a form that was easy for lay readers, such as myself, to understand. What is more, it did so by applying the science of economics to every day problems such as house prices, abortion and drug use, which means that as a reader you really want to understand why these things are as they are.
I have recently discovered the work of a UK-journalist who tries to do the same thing. His name is Tim Harford and he writes a column for the FT called the “Undercover Economist” and it makes for great reading. This week he tals about self-regulating markets based on people who go ice skating and then applies the rules to managing climate change!
As so much of politics is dependent on successful economic management I heartily recommend the column.
The powers that be at 18 Doughty Street, the on-line TV station that focuses on politics, seemed to like my last appearance on their show as they have invited me back again. I will be on the Vox Politix show tomorrow (Tuesday) night from 10pm to midnight.
Just go to their website to watch the show live. There may also be clips available for download later, but that seems to depend on whether we say anything interesting enough!
I was fascinated by a fact that Rory Bremner quoted last night on “Bremner, Bird and Fortune.” Not sure that I have got it exactly right, but it was to do with the current government’s claims to have reduced CO2 emissions.
Apparently, the current government stats have been on the fall that has occurred since 1990. What this leaves out, is that there was an 8% drop from 1990 to 1997, under John Major’s Tory government. Whereas, since 1997, emissions have actually increased by 4%! This rise is no doubt due to the large amount of hot air let out by John Prescott and the need to publish too many copies of all the laws that Labour has seen need to pass to keep their lawyer-friends prosperously employed.
If anyone can cite where these stats may have come from, I would love to know.
And just in case anyone thought that the environment was not a top issue for the TRG, please have a look at the TRG publication, “Being Blue and Green in the 21st Century” which we published a couple of years ago.
In 1985 the TRG held a dinner to celebrate its 10th anniversary. The guest of honour was Lord Stockton (Harold Macmillan). His address to the assembled members of the TRG was recorded, albeit only the sound, and we recently found a copy in our archives (actually, it turned up underneath a pile of papers when we moved offices!).
In the future, we intend to add materials of this kind to an “Archives” section of the website. While this is under contstruction, we though you might like this little taster of what is to come.
The video is hosted by Google Video. If you have any problems playing it, let us know, as it may mean we change how we intend to place things on the website.
It is December and the last thing you are probably thinking about is the Conference season next autumn – but the TRG Events Committee has got its planning hat on and is planning two events (one early evening and one lunchtime), as well as the usual TRG-Mainstream Party on the opening night, for Blackpool 2007. Last year in Bournemouth we had Sir Christopher Meyer, Andrew Mitchell MP, John Bercow MP, Alistair Burt MP and Tony Hawkhead as our guests and we have found ourselves thinking: How can we top that?
So, we thought we would ask you. Who would you like to see in Blackpool in 2007? What sort of topics would you like to see us discussing?
Please post up suggestions as comments here and the TRG Board Member for Events, Tim Crockford will put them all to the Events Committee as we plan the 2007 Conference Programme.
Today is a big day in the TRG calender. This evening we have the “TRG Christmas Spectacular“, or the “Christmas party” as most people with less of a penchant for marketing than our own Tim Crockford refer to it. Anyway, it should be fun. Hope to see you there and if you are coming, please feel free to comment on it here when you get home.
At the party, we will also be formally launching the new TRG website. Have a look by clicking here. Like this blog, the TRG site has been up for a little while, running out of sight while we get it ready. There are still a few bugs in it, but we will sort those out over time. Any comments or thoughts on that will also be genuinely welcome.
Had an email into the office this morning from Mark Clarke, Chairman of Conservative Future. He wished us well for Christmas and also highlighted the brilliant work of Student TRG by giving two examples.
The first was the leadership of Student TRG among the London University colleges, which has helped to make London the strongest part of the country for student Conservatives. The second was with regard to Oxford’s Student TRG. Mark says he has, “spoken to several councillors in tight seats in Oxfordshire who, without prompting, have spoken glowingly and gratefully of the campaigning support which they have had from Student TRG in Oxford. It is much appreciated.”
We appreciate it too. Well done to all our student members – thank-you for all of your hard work and keep it up!
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Laws to Repeal
Since 1997 the Labour government has introduced an unprecedented level of new legislation. They have brought in 3,000 new criminal offences – that is nearly one for every day since their election.
This has led to an impossible burden on the rights of every person in Britain, restrictions on businesses and their ability to compete and a windfall for lawyers, who surly did not need one.
Every year Radio Four’s Today programme runs a poll. This year the aim is to find proposals for laws that should be repealed – a great idea. At the moment they are taking nominations (click here to do so yourself).
Give it a go and strike a (small) blow against Labour’s excess!